"China Agricultural Development Report" takes you to the market direction of agricultural products

Recently, the third China Agricultural Development Conference and the release of the China Agricultural Development Report (2016~2025) (hereinafter referred to as the report) marked the basic establishment of China's agricultural outlook activities and also marked the analysis of China's global agricultural survey. The system construction is progressing steadily and steadily. The Report focuses on the characteristics and trends of China's major agricultural products market in 2016 and the “13th Five-Year Plan” from the four aspects of production, consumption, trade and price. It has an important role in the production and operation of market entities.

corn

12 years of reduction

The report predicts that in the “13th Five-Year Plan” and the next 10 years, China's corn planting area and production will decrease first and then increase. In 2016, the area will be reduced in 12 years. In 2018, there will be a gap in production and demand, and corn production will appear in 2020-2025. Slow recovery.

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China’s corn area and output increased rapidly. Affected by the slowdown in domestic economic growth and the sharp drop in global crude oil prices, China's corn consumption is generally low, with an average annual consumption of around 180 million tons. Coupled with changes in farmers' grain storage behavior, the country's corn stocks continue to rise. At the same time, due to the serious price inversion at home and abroad, the cumulative net import of Chinese corn in the past five years was 17.25 million tons, of which 4.73 million tons were imported in 2015, an increase of 82.0% over 2014.

The report believes that due to the adjustment of corn planting structure, especially the corn structure adjustment in the “sickle bend” area and the reform of the corn storage policy, it is expected that the Zhangcheng agro-pastoral zone in Hebei, the Yanshan hilly area in the Taihang Mountains, the drought-prone area in the west of Jilin, and the eastern mountainous area In some grain-repair areas, the fourth and fifth accumulated temperate zones in Heilongjiang, the northeastern Inner Mongolia and the central Houshan area, the northern Shaanxi wind-blown and Guanzhong areas and the Huang-Huai-Hai area, the corn area in 2016 will be reduced by more than 17.5 million mu from the previous year. Among them, the “Shovel Bend” area is expected to be reduced by 15 million mu. This is the reduction of corn area in China in the 12 years since 2003, with a reduction of more than 3%. At the same time, the overall deviation of the meteorological year of this year, the possibility of low temperature spring flooding and flooding in the south is relatively high. It is expected that corn yield will decrease by 1.2% compared with 2015; total corn production is expected to be 21,517 tons, which is nearly 1000 less than the previous year. Ten thousand tons.

During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, due to factors such as planting structure adjustment and low crude oil prices, China's corn acreage and production will likely continue to shrink. By 2020, planting area and production are expected to be 516.08 million mu and 205.67 million tons, respectively. The annual reduction was about 10% and 8% respectively. At the same time, due to factors such as population growth, urbanization rate increase, rural poverty alleviation, household consumption structure upgrading, and corn price return to the market, China's corn consumption will resume growth, and it is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 3%. Demand will exceed production in 2018, and the gap in production and demand in 2020 will reach more than 16 million tons. However, from the overall supply and demand situation, due to the current domestic corn stocks, the supply and demand situation of corn in the next five years will generally shift from a loose to a basic balance. China's corn and alternative imports will also gradually follow domestic prices and international standards. cut back.

The report believes that China's corn production will experience slow recovery from 2020 to 2025. Due to the basic release of the “13th Five-Year” corn stock pressure, in the absence of national policy support, processing enterprises will shift to savings, efficiency, environmental protection and sustainable development, and corn industry consumption may be reduced, but the reduction is not It will be very large, and industrial consumption is expected to be 55.3 million tons in 2025, a decrease of 0.8% from 2016. In addition, five years later, China's corn market and international linkage will be further enhanced, and corn consumption demand will drive imports. It is expected that China's corn imports will reach 2 million tons in 2025.

Soy

Planting area is expected to increase in six years

The report predicts that China's soybean production will resume growth during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” and the next 10 years. In 2016, China's soybean acreage is expected to increase in six years. Soybean consumption and imports will continue to grow, but the growth rate has slowed significantly.

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China’s soybean production continued to shrink and imports increased substantially. The planting area decreased from 118 million mu in 2011 to 98.85 million mu in 2015, a decrease of 16.5%; the output decreased from 14.49 million tons in 2011 to 11.61 million tons in 2015, a decrease of 19.8%. At the same time, the demand for protein feed in the aquaculture industry has led to a steady increase in soybean consumption. The total consumption of soybeans in China from 2011 to 2015 is close to 400 million tons, and the average annual growth rate of consumption is 5.3%. From 2011 to 2015, the total import volume of soybeans was 328 million tons, and the average annual growth rate of imports was 11.6%.

According to the report, due to the corn reserve policy reform and the adjustment of planting structure in the “sickle bend” area, it is estimated that China's soybean area will reach 103.2 million mu in 2016, an increase of more than 4.3 million mu compared with 2015. Under the condition of relatively stable yield, soybean is expected. Production will reach 12.03 million tons, an increase of more than 400,000 tons from 2015. This is also the increase in soybean acreage in China since the sixth year of 2009. Driven by the demand for feed protein and soybean oil and edible vegetable oil, China's soybean consumption in 2016 is expected to reach 91.69 million tons, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year. Among them, crushing processing consumption accounts for 87.5% of total consumption. It is estimated that China's soybean crushing processing consumption in 2016 will be 80.19 million tons, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year. Despite the signs of recovery in China's soybean production, the gap between production and demand is still large, and it needs to rely on the international market to secure supply. It is estimated that China's soybean imports will reach 82.28 million in 2016.

During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, China's soybean production is expected to grow slowly with the implementation of a series of policies to encourage soybean cultivation in China. It is estimated that China's soybean acreage is expected to reach 111.3 million mu in 2020, an increase of 12.45 million mu, an increase of 12.5%. 2020-2025, with the steady development of domestic soybean deep processing industry and the further advancement of domestic soybean brand construction, China's soybean production will continue to develop. It is estimated that China's soybean planting area will reach 117 million mu in 2025, an increase of 1389 compared with 2016. Ten thousand acres, an average annual growth rate of 1.4% in 10 years. At the same time, with the urbanization rate and the people's income level rising steadily, the consumption of meat, egg, milk, edible vegetable oil and plant protein will continue to increase, driving soybean consumption to continue to increase. It is estimated that the annual consumption of Chinese soybeans will reach 1.08 in 2025. The annual import volume of soybeans will reach 88.64 million tons.

wheat

Stable planting area, slightly reducing production and demand situation

The report predicts that in the "13th Five-Year Plan" and the next 10 years, China's wheat area will be slightly reduced, consumer demand will continue to increase, and the production and demand situation will gradually tighten.

Since the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, China's wheat output has continued to increase. In 2015, it exceeded 130 million tons, an increase of 12.79 million tons or 10.9% over 2011. In the past five years, the average annual consumption of Chinese wheat was around 120 million tons. The consumption of rations and industrial consumption increased steadily, seed consumption and losses were basically stable, feed consumption fluctuated greatly between years, and the overall production and demand situation was relatively loose. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China imported a total of 16.91 million tons of wheat, which was 1.4 times higher than that in 2011. The domestic wheat price as a whole showed a steady and rising trend. The average annual wholesale price of ordinary wheat was 2.04 per kg in 2011. Yuan rose to 2.46 yuan in 2015, a cumulative increase of 20.59%.

The report predicts that the wheat planting area and total output in 2016 will be 361.8 million mu, down by about 300,000 mu year-on-year; the output is expected to be 130.1 million tons, a slight decrease of about 100,000 tons, which may have been reduced since 2004. The reduction in area is mainly due to the moderate reduction of groundwater in the over-exploitation area of groundwater in North China. The northwestern region continues to press the summer expansion in the dryland area with annual precipitation below 300 mm, plus the overall weather year caused by the strong El Niño phenomenon. Deviation, winter wheat seedlings are not as good as last year. At the same time, affected by population growth and other factors, China's wheat consumption in 2016 is expected to be 120.27 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons from 2015. Among them, ration consumption is expected to be 85.36 million tons, a slight increase of 200,000 tons; feed consumption is expected to be 10.69 million tons, a slight decrease of about 400,000 tons; industrial consumption is expected to be 14.44 million tons, a slight increase of about 700,000 tons. Wheat imports and exports remain basically stable.

According to the report, during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, due to the adjustment of planting structure and the limitation of resources and ecological environment, China's wheat planting area will stabilize slightly, the output growth rate will slow down markedly, consumption growth will still be faster, and the production and demand situation will be changed from loose to Basic balance. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, China's wheat planting area has stabilized and declined. By 2020, it is estimated to be 360.30 million mu, which is about 1.8 million mu less than that in 2015. The total wheat output is expected to be 131.91 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons from 2015. about. At the same time, China's wheat consumption continues to increase. It is estimated that the consumption in 2020 will be 126.3 million tons, and the production and demand will be basically balanced.

The report looks forward to the situation of China's wheat production and demand in the next 10 years. In the next 10 years, China's wheat production will grow relatively slowly, consumption growth will be relatively fast, and the relationship between production and demand will gradually shift to tight balance. By 2025, China's wheat area is expected to be 358.95 million mu, a decrease of 3 million mu from 2015, an average annual decrease of 0.1%; total output is 133.79 million tons, an increase of 2.0% over 2015, an average annual increase of 0.2%, significantly lower In the past 10 years, the growth rate was 2.6%; the estimated consumption was 132.63 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 1.0%. The growth rate of consumption is obviously higher than the growth rate of production, and the relationship between production and demand will gradually become tight. Among them, ration consumption, feed consumption, and industrial consumption will continue to grow, with an average annual growth rate of 0.4%, 3.1%, and 3.7%, respectively, and the loss and seed consumption will drop slightly by 0.1% annually.

paddy

The gap between production and demand has an expanding trend

The report predicts that in the “13th Five-Year Plan” and the next 10 years, China's rice planting area will increase first and then decrease, the total output will remain basically stable, consumption will continue to grow, and the gap between production and demand will be slightly expanded.

Since the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, China's rice production has developed steadily. In 2011, the output exceeded 200 million tons. After that, the annual output was basically stable at more than 200 million tons. In 2015, it reached 20,824,500 tons (equivalent to 145,771,500 tons of rice); The total consumption of rice is 145 million tons, an increase of about 5 million tons from the previous year, and the production and demand are basically balanced.

In 2016, affected by the corn storage system reform and planting structure adjustment, the rice planting area in Northeast China is expected to increase slightly. The southern japonica rice planting area will be slightly reduced. The total rice planting area in China is expected to be adjusted by about 1 million mu. Affected by the super-strong El Niño phenomenon, the overall deviation of the meteorological year in 2016 is expected to decrease slightly, and the total output will maintain a steady increase. The consumption of rice is estimated to be 107.47 million tons, which is basically the same as that of the previous year. Due to the return of corn prices to the market, rice feed consumption is expected to decrease by 1.4% year-on-year. At the same time, China will strengthen its cooperation with international rice trade in 2016, and net import of rice is expected to stabilize at the 2015 level.

Looking forward to the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” and the next 10 years, China's rice planting area will increase first and then decrease. It is expected to be 44.23 million mu in 2020 and 441.63 million mu in 2025, with an average annual decline of 0.3% in 10 years. This is mainly due to the adjustment of planting structure. The cultivated land in some parts of Northeast China will be re-planted from corn production, and the rice planting area in the southern ecological restoration area will be greatly reduced. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of China's agricultural technology research and development, promotion and service system, rice yield is expected to increase steadily. It is expected to reach 465 kg per mu in 2020 and 469 kg in 2025, with an average annual increase of 0.2% in 10 years. Mainly affected by the steady increase in yields, China's rice production will remain stable in the next 10 years. At the same time, China's rice demand will maintain an average annual growth rate of 0.3% in the next 10 years. It is estimated to be 148.01 million tons in 2020 and 15029 in 2025. 10,000 tons, the net import of rice at the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" is about 2.92 million tons, and the import of rice at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is about 2.93 million tons.

cotton

High quality demand has increased significantly

The report predicts that China's cotton production will be more concentrated in Xinjiang, total output and total consumption will decline in the “13th Five-Year Plan” and the next 10 years. The demand for high-quality cotton in the cotton textile industry will increase significantly.

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China’s cotton production and demand showed a downward trend. Among them, the planting area decreased from 75.57 million mu in 2011 to 56.98 million mu in 2015, a drop of 24.6%; the output decreased from 6.589 million tons to 5.605 million tons, a decrease of 14.9%.

China's cotton production in 2016 will continue to decline sharply year-on-year. Affected by factors such as declining comparative benefits, rising production costs, and national food priority strategies, China's cotton planting area and production will continue to fall sharply in 2016. Affected by factors such as outward transfer of cotton textile industry and substitution of chemical fiber, China's cotton consumption in 2016 is expected to be 7.158 million tons, down 2.7% year-on-year. At the same time, 2016 is a key year for China's cotton destocking. National cotton storage will become an important means of regulating the cotton market. Cotton imports will continue to decrease. The net import volume is expected to be 1 million tons, down 31.1% year-on-year.

China's demand for high-quality cotton will increase significantly during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The report predicts that during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, China's cotton production will be further concentrated in the Xinjiang cotton area, and the proportion of cotton production in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins will drop significantly. In 2020, China's cotton planting area and output were 51.66 million mu and 4.96 million tons, respectively, down 5.8% and 11.5% from 2015. In 2025, China's cotton planting area and output were 51.2 million mu and 4.67 million tons, respectively, down from 2015. 10.1% and 16.7%. At the same time, with the accelerated transformation and upgrading of the domestic cotton textile industry, the consumption of cotton will also show a significant downward trend. It is estimated that the consumption in 2020 will be 7.08 million tons, down 3.8% from 2015, but the demand for high-quality cotton will increase significantly. It will force China's cotton production to speed up the process of quality improvement.

Edible Oil

　 Self-sufficiency rate will fall to 30%

The report predicts that China's oilseed production will decrease first and then increase in the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” and the next 10 years. In 2016, the self-sufficiency rate of edible vegetable oil will fall to 30%, and the total gap in edible vegetable oil production will reach more than 100 million tons in the next five years.

The report believes that due to the combined effects of reduced comparative benefits, rapeseed storage policy reform and corn soybean planting structure adjustment, it is estimated that China's oilseed planting area will be 306.2 million mu in 2016, a slight decrease from the previous year. Affected by the decline in area, China's total oilseed production is expected to decrease by 0.7% in 2016 to 46.76 million tons, of which rapeseed production decreased by 9.4%, peanut production increased by 4.0%, and soybean production increased by 3.6%. At the same time, driven by the growth of edible vegetable oil consumption and the growth of soybean meal feed consumption, China's three major oilseed consumption is expected to be 125 million tons in 2016, up 0.2% from 2015; oilseed imports are expected to be 88.13 million tons, of which soybean imports are 8228. 10,000 tons, rapeseed imports 4.45 million tons, edible vegetable oil imports 6.43 million tons. Due to the impact of domestic oilseed production, the self-sufficiency rate of edible vegetable oil in China will fall to 30% in 2016.

The report predicts that during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, China's oilseed production will increase steadily under the influence of soybeans and peanuts. The total output in five years is estimated to be 240 million tons, and the total domestic oil extraction is about 49.4 million tons. At the same time, edible vegetable oil is five. The total annual demand is expected to be 160 million tons, and the production and demand gap is 110 million tons.

(Original title: Take you to understand how the situation of grain and oil production needs to go)