Although the foreign trade import and export data in August was lower than market expectations, experts and market participants interviewed by Securities Times reporters did not hold negative views on the performance of foreign trade in the third and fourth quarters. The analysis believes that although the impact of shrinking external demand and foreign inflation on China's foreign trade is accelerating, there are still many favorable conditions for stabilizing foreign trade. The Securities Times reporter noticed that recently, some localities have successively introduced special policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade. Foreign-related business charter has become a new thing for foreign trade enterprises to stabilize orders and expand the market. With the joint efforts of all parties, my country's foreign trade has strong resilience.
China's foreign trade import and export
not "cold"
In the first eight months of this year, my country's export value was 15.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.2%. In August, the export value was 2.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8%. This performance fell sharply from the previous month and was also far below market expectations. A number of market participants interviewed by reporters said that judging from the data in August, the downward pressure on my country's exports has emerged, but the subsequent export performance is still subject to great uncertainty. The export exceeded the expected logic and will not be reversed soon.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, told the Securities Times reporter that in the context of a high probability of falling import demand from developed economies in Europe and the United States, continuing to expand the ASEAN market externally and domestically ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain will help to prolong my country's exports. toughness. Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities Research Institute, pointed out that exports fell significantly in August, but there were still bright spots at the structural level. Since the Ukrainian crisis, European energy prices have risen sharply and energy supply is insufficient. In this context, the demand for high energy-consuming products in Europe may be transferred to China, which will become another support for my country's exports. Changes may verify the transfer of this requirement.
Judging from the data of the first eight months, the impact of international geopolitical conflicts on my country's foreign trade structure has already emerged. Ni Yueju, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that to prevent changes in the international situation from impacting my country's important import and export commodities: First, pay attention to analyzing the changing trends of the international landscape. In the context of major changes unseen in a century, profound changes will take place in the international political and economic structure, national security concepts, global financial system, energy supply and demand structure, global industrial chain, and global R&D system, which will have a profound impact on foreign trade. For example, all countries give equal importance to economic growth and security, and the layout of the industrial chain and value chain may be more "conservative", which will affect the import and export of commodities; the second is to pay attention to the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain. Import and export of high-tech products and upstream and downstream products need attention.
Introduce support policies in many places
Escort foreign trade import and export
The support policies for foreign trade import and export are being continuously implemented and detailed. The State Council executive meeting proposed to facilitate the entry and exit of business personnel. The Ministry of Commerce revealed that it will continue to promote the development of new foreign trade formats and models, support the export of key products such as new energy vehicles, smooth the channels for foreign trade enterprises to seize orders, and enhance foreign trade enterprises' exchange rate risk management capabilities to stabilize foreign trade. At the local level, since the beginning of this year, some provinces and municipalities have issued multiple rounds of policies and supporting measures to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment. According to incomplete statistics, Zhejiang has intensively introduced 5 rounds of foreign trade stabilization policies during the year, which exceeded the 2020 epidemic period.
Recently, some localities have also introduced policies and measures based on their own characteristics. Foreign-related business charter has become a new thing for foreign trade enterprises to stabilize orders and expand the market. In addition, Guangxi, Sichuan, Shenzhen and other places have introduced policies or measures to further stabilize foreign trade. For example, the Shenzhen Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau jointly issued a document with multiple departments, proposing 20 work requirements in five areas, in order to increase financial support and promote the stability and improvement of foreign trade.
Stabilizing foreign trade is inseparable from the active actions of market players. In the first eight months of this year, the total value of my country's import and export of goods trade was 27.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. Among them, the import and export of private enterprises was 13.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.9%, accounting for 50.1% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the same period last year. The outstanding performance of private enterprises is a highlight of my country's foreign trade.
Net export contribution rate in the second half of the year
It is expected to be slightly better than the first half of the year
In the first half of this year, net exports of goods and services drove GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 35.8%.
In an interview with a Securities Times reporter, Ni Yueju said that the performance of foreign trade in the third and fourth quarters will continue the trend in the first half of the year, and the contribution rate of net exports is even slightly better than that in the first half of the year. The reasons are: First, China's GDP in the first half of this year has stepped out of a "saddle-shaped" growth trend. If there is no major external shock, China's economy will continue to grow steadily in the second half of the year; second, the current global situation is still unstable, and China is A relatively stable "oasis", China's industrial chain supply chain is relatively less affected, the supply of raw materials and energy is relatively stable, and the cost impact is relatively small; third, the effect of China's industrial transformation and upgrading that has been implemented for many years is showing, as usual. The proportion of trade is close to 65%, and the proportion of processing trade has dropped to 20%. Fourth, with the enhancement of China's independent innovation capability, China's manufacturing industry has continued to move towards the high-end of the industrial chain, and the export proportion of mechanical and electrical products has reached 56.5%. Some new technological revolution areas have achieved overtaking on the curve, which has driven the export of Chinese related products; sixth, the continuous release of the dividends of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the advancement of the “Belt and Road” construction are relatively stable for China. 7. Affected by factors such as Sino-US trade friction, the new crown epidemic and the Ukrainian crisis, the global supply chain has been frustrated or even broken, and the domestic supply capacity of intermediate products has been continuously improved, which has a certain substitution effect on imported intermediate products; 8. A stable Chinese market can attract foreign trade orders, as well as stably fulfill contracts and deliver goods; ninth, China's policy of stabilizing foreign trade growth will continue to exert its strength.
Cross-border e-commerce is an important driving force for stabilizing foreign trade. Li Yi, an associate researcher at the Institute of Electronic Commerce of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, told the Securities Times reporter that in terms of growth rate, in the first half of 2022, my country's cross-border e-commerce increased by 28.6% year-on-year. The export growth rate was 19.2 percentage points higher, still a new growth point of my country's foreign trade. In the future, with the continuous optimization of the supervision model, cross-border e-commerce will continue to enhance the digitalization of traditional foreign trade. Cross-border e-commerce B2B will drive more Chinese brands to go overseas and become the focus of stabilizing foreign trade. In recent years, my country has actively participated in promoting international cooperation in the digital economy. At present, my country's "Silk Road E-commerce" partner countries have increased to 23. With the continuous deepening of e-commerce international cooperation mechanisms and cooperation models, it will accelerate the export of my country's cross-border e-commerce models, promote the cultivation and development of cross-border e-commerce markets in emerging countries, and form new growth points.