In the second half of the year, the prices of chemical products tend to stabilize.

December 14, 2022

In the first half of this year, the main domestic Chemical Products prices continue to rise, some of the products prices reached the highest level in recent years. APIs are also among them, some products also "up and down". Coupled with the country's increasingly stringent requirements for environmental protection, the first half of the API companies can clearly feel the pressure of high costs tighten. However, the National Price Monitoring Center's latest report completed in the forecast is gratifying: the second half of the chemical prices will tend to stabilize, some product prices may be a small drop.
Data show that the average price of polyethylene in the first half of 11,740 yuan / ton, down 3.16%; polypropylene average price of 11,389 yuan / ton, up 6.62%; PVC average price of 70,020; yuan / ton, down 14.09%; polyester chips average price of 10,654 yuan / ton, down 2.83%; paraben rubber average price of 15,484 yuan / ton, higher than 9.09%; the average price of the five major chemical products was 11,258 yuan / ton, up 0.27% over the same period last year.

Import and export foreign trade report that the impact of the first half of the chemical product price increases are factors such as demand growth, cost push, international market price increases. Among them, the sharp rise in crude oil prices pushed up the cost of chemical products, which provided support for prices; and the rise in prices of chemical products in the international market also led to the rise in domestic prices.

With the second half of the global economic growth slowdown, the international market crude oil high level back down, the second half of the chemical product prices will tend to stabilize. From the aspect of economic growth, the second half of the growth rate may be slower than the first half of the year, which will have a certain impact on the price trend of chemical products. From the global trend, in recent years, the world economy continues to grow rapidly, pulling the prices of primary products rose sharply, and various risks gradually accumulated. In order to prevent inflation, the United States has increased the benchmark interest rate to 5.25%, the European Union has also slightly increased the level of interest rates. It can be expected that countries will still guard against possible inflation and financial risks, and economic growth will slow down. Domestically, with the gradual introduction of macro-control measures, the demand and prices of various production materials will tend to stabilize, and it will be more difficult for the prices of chemical products to continue to rise.

From the second half of the international market changes in oil prices, according to the second half of the international oil price trend analysis, in July and August, due to the arrival of peak demand for gasoline in the summer, the summer catastrophic weather increased, crude oil prices may appear a certain amount of rise... However, too high oil prices clearly inhibit the growth of demand. For example, the International Energy Agency in its May report lowered its forecast for global oil demand this year to 1.24 million barrels per day from 1.8 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year. As a result, oil demand off-season prices will show some degree of decline. It is expected that there is still room for a slight increase in chemical product prices in July and August.

However, the report believes that, in general, the demand for chemical products is still growing, so the prices of chemical products will remain high in the second half of the year. Therefore, APIs in the short term still can not get rid of the impact of rising costs, which will cause a certain degree of impact on the price advantage of winning China's APIs.

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