Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China and vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency recently that China's foreign trade still has a broad space for development, and it is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 10% this year.
Last year, the scale of China's foreign trade hit a record high, with a growth rate of 21.4%. In the first eight months of this year, China's total import and export value was 27.3 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. However, in August, imports and exports increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was almost "halved" compared with July, and also lower than the level in June.
In Wei Jianguo's view, considering the high base in the same period last year, it is normal for the growth rate to drop briefly in August, which does not mean that import and export will never recover. "The view that China's foreign trade has reached a turning point is wrong." Taking a closer look at the current international market situation, China's foreign trade still has a broad space for development.
He said that although the overall global demand is currently sluggish, Europe and the United States are about to usher in the traditional Christmas season of consumption. Many large supermarkets have consumed a lot of inventory due to supply chain obstruction some time ago, and need to be replenished urgently. European countries also urgently need to reserve cold protection supplies to deal with The "cold winter" caused by the energy crisis. These multi-variety, multi-level and large-scale needs can only be met by a country like China with a highly complete industrial chain.
Wei Jianguo said that if Chinese foreign trade companies can firmly grasp the needs of these three aspects in September and October, and take the opportunity to accept orders, coupled with favorable factors such as the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the continuous release of the effect of stabilizing foreign trade policies, it is expected that the growth rate of China's foreign trade will remain unchanged this year. It is expected to remain in double digits.
In order to provide conditions for enterprises to accept orders smoothly, the official has already begun to take action. The executive meeting of the State Council has clearly proposed to support the expansion of the market by guaranteeing orders, and strengthen service guarantees such as outbound exhibitions and negotiations. The 2022 National Foreign Trade Work TV and Telephone Conference held by the Ministry of Commerce also proposed that it is necessary to unblock the channels for foreign trade enterprises to seize orders and support enterprises to ensure production and contract performance. The "order defense war" related to the prospects of foreign trade seems to have begun.
Wei Jianguo believes that in the future, China should be more proactive in stabilizing foreign trade, and encourage foreign trade enterprises to "go out" as soon as possible to understand the international market conditions, "go in" to understand the development trend of related industries, and work hard to "go up" to promote products to higher-end . In addition, given the recent drop in international shipping prices and the easing of global logistics congestion, greater efforts should be made to open up domestic logistics congestion points to ensure stable and smooth logistics, help enterprises to grab orders, realize early stocking and early delivery, and recover from the epidemic in the early stage. losses caused.